Monday, March 16, 2009

Today's Economic Lunacy

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

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If ever there was ever any doubt that lunatics are running the economic asylum, we received more than enough confirmation of it today. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke expressed confidence that the current recession (actually depression) could end in 2009. It has been revealed that much of the AIG bailout money went to pay other banks and brokers who were also receiving bailout money and for executive bonuses. OPEC caved into pressure from the West not to cut oil production because it would hurt the world economy, as if this could somehow undo all the damage the Central Bankers were doing.

Fed Chair Ben Bernanke made his remarks about the recession on 60 Minutes (they should have resurrected the 1960's classic show, 'The Twilight Zone', for his commentary). While media headlines this morning blared that Bernanke said the recession would be ending in 2009, he actually added the important caveat that this would only happen if the banking system is stabilized. A realistic assessment of the chances of that happening can not be found in most press coverage. Bernanke further stated (try not to laugh) the largest U.S. banks are solvent and "they are not going to fail". The large U.S. banks are of course insolvent, although it is true that they are not going to fail because the government will pump an infinite amount of money into them if necessary to prevent this from happening. U.S. taxpayers should not worry about this however. Bernanke assured us last night that the bailout aid is not coming directly from tax funds and is "more akin to printing money than it is borrowing." Isn't that the approach the Weimar Germany and Zimbabwe took?

Government money printing is bad enough as is, but the news out of AIG over the weekend shows just how much of this is going to waste (hey, don't worry, they can always print more... and they will). Of the $170 billion that AIG received in government bailout funds, $105 billion went to pay other banks, including many foreign banks. Many of the U.S. banks were already receiving other government bailout money as is. As for the foreign banks, why is the U.S. bailing them out? Adding insult to injury, AIG is also using its bailout money to also pay executive bonuses. It claims that it is legally obligated to do so. Personally, I would like to see those contracts that state government money must be used to pay these bonuses. I think this problem could easily be solved if the people running AIG spent some time with Bernie Madoff in his new home.

Since the ordinary rules of basic economics are being ignored everywhere else, why should they apply to oil production. At its meeting on Sunday, OPEC did not cut production quotas again, but instead said it would aim to enforce the already existing cuts. In the last several months OPEC has announced a 4.2 billion reduction in quotas and it is estimated there has been 80% compliance. They are now trying to get the extra 20% or 800,000 barrels a day. Oil production is being cut elsewhere as well, including the U.S., and this is happening because it simply isn't profitable to produce oil under $40 a barrel in many places. And no amount of wishing, hoping and jawboning is going to make this happen. The rules of economics always win in the end. Someone should tell Ben Bernanke.

The New York Investing meetup is having its second class in Technical Analysis on Tuesday. If you are in the New York area, you should be attending (space is limited and by invitation only to members of the group, if you didn't get an invitation email me through the website).

NEXT: When Bad News is Good News and Vice-a-Versa

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.





2 comments:

CJ said...

Thanks again for being a red pill among the enormous pile of main stream blue-pills.

CB said...

Exactly how insolvent do you believe the big banks actually are?