Friday, May 1, 2009

Market At Key Resistance; Scamdemic Update

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

While it looks like Chrysler declaring bankruptcy weighed on the market yesterday, the selling from the intraday highs has a technical explanation. During the day, the Nasdaq reached 1753, almost hitting its 200-day moving average of 1756. This is always an important resistance point in any bear market rally. The Dow itself traded as high as 8307, a price where there is significant chart resistance. While some selling should be expected soon because the market usually can't just break through strong resistance immediately, I think the Nasdaq will manage to break above its 200-day after awhile and the current rally will last until the Dow and S&P 500 reach theirs. As of today, the Dow's 200-day is at 9077 and the S&P 500's is at 964 (the S&P's high yesterday was 889). All the 200-day's are falling, so you need to check where they are every now and then.

One thing that has not made the market go down, to its credit, is the mainstream media misinformation campaign about the current swine flu outbreak. While any rational assessment indicates that this is much ado about nothing and this version of flu is probably the least serious that ever existed, health care officials from WHO, the U.S. Health and Human Services, the CDC and the New York Health Department have done everything possible to fan the flames of hysteria and engender panic among the global populace. The media has been a more than willing accomplice in this endeavor. Moreover, this is not the first time this has happened. There was also a major swine flu scare in 1976 created by the U.S. government. That epidemic never materialized.

Having much experience deconstructing investing news for its intent to mislead the reader, it was easy to see immediately that the supposed dire situation with the current swine flu outbreak was all a bunch of hype. Let's examine the actual facts of what is taking place:

1. No one outside of Mexico has died from this disease. The one case of a death reported in the U.S. was for a toddler who was a resident of Mexico City and was brought to the U.S. Furthermore, he had other significant underlying health problems that the medical authorities refuse to reveal. Did he die from those instead of the flu? Quite possibly.
2. As for the supposed deaths in Mexico from swine flu, which is the basis for the pandemic panic, the evidence doesn't support media reporting. Almost from the beginning, the media reported 160 'suspected' deaths (sometimes the word suspected got left out). The figures as of this morning indicate that only 300 cases of swine flu have been confirmed by viral typing in Mexico (less than half of suspected cases turned out to be swine flu). Of these, only 7 people have died. What other medical conditions these seven had that might have contributed to their deaths is unknown and probably will remain so.
3. The danger of contagion seems to be minimal as well. Mexican health workers have so far found only 2 cases of family members of suspected and actual swine flu sufferers who have tested positive for type A influenza (this doesn't mean they have swine flu, but they could).
4. As of yesterday, the CDC had confirmed only 109 cases of swine flu in the U.S. The number of cases plateaued fairly quickly. The average sufferer has had relatively mild symptoms for a case of the flu and has recovered quickly.
5. The U.S. government has committed $1.5 billion of taxpayer money to handle this 'dire' emergency. So someone's getting rich off of it.
6. Based on the actual evidence (not supposition) so far, it looks like you are more likely to be hit by a bus than to get swine flu. Even if you got swine flu, it seems much less risky that the usual varieties of flu that we are exposed to on a regular basis.

While a certain percentage of the public has panicked over swine flu, most people have ignored the hysteria the government officials and the mainstream media are trying to foment. The credibility of both continue to sink - as they should. Perhaps the public is more worried about the gross mishandling of the economy by the powers that be and refuses to be distracted. Unlike swine flu, that's a problem that's not going to go away.

NEXT: Swine Flu Update - Government Scamdemic and the Credit Crisis

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

1 comment:

AMIT said...

Very good information given about Market.