After three years of easy money the Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it was going to buy around $10 billion a month in treasury bonds - a pittance for an economy the size of the United States. The Fed began its current stimulus campaign with a discount rate cut in August 2007. After using every trick in the book and creating a few new ones, the U.S. economy is still in a troubled state.
In its statement after yesterday's meeting, the Fed admitted that "the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months" and "bank lending has continued to contract." The FOMC went on to say that "the the pace of economic recovery is likely to be more modest in the near term than had been anticipated." Considering that the Fed was hopeful of preventing a recession in the spring of 2008- months after a recession had already started, these statements imply that the U.S. economy is currently close to or even in a downturn.
The Fed doesn't plan on doing much about it however. It can't lower the funds rate any further because it is has been at zero since December 2008. The major option the Fed has left to stimulate the economy is to expand its balance sheet through quantitative easing, essentially money printing. This would be inflationary as is the case with all forms of money printing. While the Fed constantly says there is no inflation and intimates that it is worried about deflation, it is unwilling to make a move that would be inflationary. If deflation is really a risk, expanding its balance sheet becomes the correct course of action. Investors should wonder why the Fed is unwilling to do this.
What the Fed plans on doing currently is to buy 2-year and 10-year treasuries with the proceeds it gets from selling mortgage backed securities that it acquired from Fannie Mae (FNMA) and Freddie Mac (FMCC) during the Credit Crisis. The Fed has more than a trillion dollars of these on its books. This action will prevent the Fed's balance sheet from contracting. The net purchase in treasuries will be minimal. The overall impact on the U.S. economy will be close to nil.
Investors should look to Japan for a lesson on how inept central bank and fiscal policy can lead to decades of a failed economy and low stock prices. The Nikkei closed at 9213 last night, more than 75% off from its high around 40,000 on the last day of 1989. The Japanese economy has been in the doldrums for two decades now. In the United States, it's three years and counting.
Disclosure: No positions.
Daryl Montgomery
Organizer, New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21
This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.
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1 comment:
Perhaps the Fed has determined that an attempt to maintain equilibrium / "perfect balance between threats" (inflation vs. deflation) is no longer achievable. So now they must go to Plan B: Preserve the wealth and power of their patrons: wealthy bondholders. Therefore a difficult choice must be made, between zero to negative economic growth - preserving the value of bonds and limiting equity appreciation while empowering regressive political forces in the U.S. - or a return to moderate inflation, destroying bond wealth and allowing some equity appreciation while bolstering progressive political forces. Taking a cue from their masters, they choose the former scenario over the latter. You say their actions indicate fear of hyperinflation. I posit their fears are loss of bond wealth and loss of political control.
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