Early Year Trading Signal Goes Neutral

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

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The market had a sharp sell off yesterday where essentially every stock group got hit. The major averages moved right back to where they started the year, making the early year trading indicator neutral. Still there were important messages within the internal trading patterns that can be used as a guide for investing . While things don't look horrendously bad as they did in the beginning of 2008, there is no cause for optimism just yet. As of now, 2009 looks more likely to be a year of ups and downs in a bigger sideways trading pattern. Nevertheless, investors should look closely at the market for signs of trend change around the beginnings of each of the next three quarters.

Oil which took the lead on the way up, was the hardest hit yesterday, with the ETF dropping 12.5% on the day. Silver was second, falling 4.3%. The small-cap Russel 2000 had the biggest loss among the indices, ending down 3.4%. Nasdaq, the S&P 500 and the Dow followed with losses of 3.2%, 3.0% and 2.8% respectively. GLD was down 2.8%. The Dow ended 2008 at 8776 and ended the fourth trading day of 2009 at 8770; the S&P 500, 903 and 907; the Nasdaq 1577 and 1599; and the Russell 2000, 499 and 497. If you had slept through the first 4 days, you wouldn't have known anything had happened.

Despite energy being hard hit yesterday, energy stocks garnered the most investor interest in the beginning of the year. Agriculture performed almost as well. Mining was next and the Aerospace group was fourth. The top three groups are all inflation sensitive. On the downside, no group can compare with Savings and Loans. Not surprisingly, Banks were next to the bottom. They were followed by Computer Software, Utility stocks, and Semiconductors. Anyone tempted to bottom fish among these group should follow the highly cyclical semiconductors. While they are strongly impacted by the economy, they also tend to do well in higher inflation environments. When the economy turns (and no one right now knows when that will be), these stocks will do particularly well.

All in all, investors should be watching oil and looking to pick it up or energy related stocks on pull backs. The bottom in oil may still be a ways off, but a lot of buying interest has now been established at the prices reached in December. Mining and agricultural plays should also be kept on the radar. Keep in mind that there is always money to made in the stock market - as long as you know where to look.

NEXT: Economic Reports - From Very Bad to Even Worse

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Seesaw Market Action Continues on Day Three of 2009

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

After rising on the first and falling on the second trading day of the year, U.S. markets rallied on the third. The seesaw action indicates that the big money is still ambivalent about whether or not to put money into the stock market. Nevertheless, certain sectors of the market are seeing major buying committments, with energy being the top performer by far. Mining and Agricultural stocks have also done quite well. All three groups are inflation plays. On the flip side, industry groups strongly impacted by recession and the Credit Crisis remain investing pariahs. Market players lack of interest in these stocks indicate they do not forsee that the current recession will be over soon, nor that the financial system is yet on its way to recovery.

While the market rallied yesterday, it was nothing to write home about. The Dow was up 0.7% and the S&P500 0.8%. Nasdaq did much better, rising 1.5% and small caps did the best of all with the Russell 2000 rising 1.9%. While trading volume rose on the day, it was still below average for the Dow (trading volume below average indicates lack of enthusiasm for the move). For a third consecutive day, the only really outstanding volume was in oil.

While energy stocks once again did well, they were only the second best perfoming group yesterday. Mining stocks moved to the number one position. Double digit gains have been seen in the big international miners so far this year making them some of the biggest winners in the market. Overall, a higher percentage of energy related stocks have done well though. Joining these group toward the top of the list were Agriculture, Tranportation, and Chemicals.

As usual, the bottom position was held by Savings and Loans. There seems to be absolutely no buying interest in this group . Next to the bottom were the safe-haven Utilities, which are apparently not considered so safe at the moment (this group is usually held up by their high dividends, although these could become insignificant during a period of high inflation). Just above Utilities were Consumer, Food/Beverage, Retail and Medical stocks. Consumer and Retail stocks are deeply impacted by recession so it makes sense for them to be on this list. Food/Beverage and Medical stocks are usually safe-havens in a recession. The big money doesn't seem interested in putting any more money into these sectors however.

As of this writing the fourth trading day of the year looks like it will be down. If so, it will only add to the apparent lack of interest on trader's part in putting money into stocks in 2009. Without that, the fuel needed for an overall sustainable rally will just not be there.

NEXT: Early Year Trading Signal Goes Neutral

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

What We Learned From the First Trading Day of 2009

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

January 2nd was a good year for the markets throughout the world. Volume was low however since many traders took a four day weekend and this almost certainly reduced selling. While we can't look at the results as a complete picture, the first day does provide us with a good sense of what people are buying. While this is very useful information, you need to make sure selling pressure isn't overwhelming the buying interest. Under such circumstances, the areas of the market that were doing the best and worst are most likely to provide useful information.

All the U.S. indices rallied on Friday. The Nasdaq led the way, rising 55.18 points or 3.4%. The S&P was just slightly behind, going up 28.55 points or 3.1%. The Dow with its 258.30 rally was up 2.9%. Noticeably lagging were small cap stocks. The Russell 2000 rose only 6.39 points or 1.2%. Trading volume on the Dow was well below average. Nasdaq volume was low. Low volume was also seen in GLD, which was down slightly on the day. SLV which was slightly up, rose on somewhat above average volume. OIL though won the prize going up 8% on volume that was well above average.

Examining purchasing in individuals stocks, Energy related stocks had the highest percentage of buying interest by far of all industry groups. They were followed by Metals/Steel, Machinery,
Mining, and Aerospace stocks. The list of stocks that investors were scooping up could be best summed up as commodity related and infrastructure plays (the Obama administration is working on a one trillion dollar spending package which will benefit these companies).

And what stocks did investors shun like the plague? At the very top of that list was Savings and Loans. Office products were in essentially just as bad shape. Slightly better were Banks, Semiconductors, Insurance, and Computer Hardware in that order. The industries most lacking in buying interest could best be summed up as financial and those that produce products that are used for business operations - or perhaps, those that are part of the Credit Crisis and those most impacted by recession.

NEXT: Sellers Return for Second Day of Trading

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.