Showing posts with label Prudential. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Prudential. Show all posts

Friday, May 15, 2009

The Scamdemic in Insurers, Autos and Swine Flu

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

While I have often criticized the U.S. government for sloppy and corrupt economic policy, it is really outdoing itself lately to reach news highs on the stupidity meter. Essentially, federal government policy can be described as reward the incompetent. If a choice must be made between rewarding the extremely incompetent versus the very incompetent, reward the extremely incompetent. Better yet still if maximum unemployment and long-term economic damage can result from a policy choice, which should also costs ten times more in the long run. Unfortunately, as the latest news on swine flu reveals, this problem isn't limited to economic policy, but effects life or death health issues for the American public. If there was a movie analogy for the last two U.S. presidential administrations, it would have to be "Dumb and Dumber".

Today's news included bailouts for the life insurance companies and the simultaneous winding down of the American auto industry. The Treasury department has agreed to provide at least $22 billion in TARP funds to six life insurers, including Hartford Financial, Lincoln National, Allstate Corp., Ameriprise Financial, Principal Financial Group and Prudential. Like all bailouts that have taken place so far, expect more to be paid out in the future. While the insurance companies were being saved from their financial profligacy, the auto companies are being allowed to flounder.

Chrysler announced it was closing a quarter of all of its dealerships and GM is eliminating 1100. GM faces a June 1 deadline for bankruptcy. The Obama administration has done everything possible to push GM over the edge. While the costs of a bailout would be minimal compared to the financial companies, the costs of not bailing out the auto companies will be staggering. These will include paying off CDSs (credit default swaps) for GM bonds, unemployment insurance, health care costs, state and local government bailouts, etc, etc, etc. The administrations attempt to get the bondholders to accept worthless equity in the company sets another bad precedent as well. This will damage the ability of all U.S. manufacturing companies to raise capital in the future (especially from foreign sources). It was long term government policy initiatives to build up the FIRE (finance, insurance, real estate) economy at the expense of manufacturing that led to our current difficulties. Is the government trying to fix this mistake? Not at all, they are trying to compound it.

Some more interesting news on the swine flu debacle #2 (the first debacle was in the mid 1970s) came out in the last 24 hours. A report from Bloomberg News stated the World Health Organization is investigating a claim by an top flu researcher and one of the developers of Tamiflu, Adrian Gibbs, that the swine flu virus currently circling the globe may have been created in a medical lab as a result of human error. Presumably, it was accidentally released. In reaction to the report, a spokesperson for the CDC in Atlanta vehemently denied the possibility of swine flu being man made even though the CDC has yet to review Dr. Gibbs data (hmmm, I wonder who could have operated a lab where this could have taken place). Regardless of what may have happened in the past, there is no need to have doubts about whether or not the CDC's operations will be in competent hands in the future. The Obama administration has just announced that it is appointing New York City Health Commissioner Thomas Frieden to head the CDC. In case you have forgotten, Frieden was the one who stated there were hundreds of undiagnosed cases of swine flu in the city (there weren't) when the flu first appeared. While doing everything possible to unnecessarily spread panic, the NYC health department was busy botching the early testing of potential swine flu cases. The extremely incompetent Frieden will be replacing the merely incompetent Richard Besser.

NEXT: Market Meltup in Mumbai

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.





Friday, March 20, 2009

Commodities Rumble, Financials Tumble

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

Alcoa was one of the biggest movers in the market yesterday. At one point it was up over 20%. It was also the stock that I pounded the table to buy at Tuesday night's class on Technical Analysis. Our February choice, DXO, is up over 50%. Basically every stock I mentioned during the class had a good to huge rally. Even FCX, used to illustrate a number of technical points and well advanced in its rally would have made you good money. It was in the upper 34's on Wednesday morning, but over 42 at its high yesterday (there are better bargains in the market at this point). Even a Canadian Royalty Trust that I only mentioned in passing that I had purchased, went up nicely. A couple of attentive attendees took the hint. Coal stocks across the board had terrific rallies. We spent a lot of time looking at coal in the class. While I wasn't sure steel had bottomed, it rallied sharply nevertheless. No one apparently picked up on the shipping company that I made a gratuitous remark about, probably because I didn't state that I owned it. It was up 28% yesterday.

What wasn't up yesterday were financials. Citigroup was down 26% at its low, but closed down 16%. It is planning a reverse split. Wells Fargo was down 10% and Regions Financial down 12%. Broker, Morgan Stanley was down 13%. Insurance companies were clobbered (watch this space for a future bailout). Prudential was down 25% and Met Life, 12%. While you can make good money day trading financials, their long term picture is down while the long term picture for commodities is up. You can no more walk away while holding these positions than you could leave a big pile of chips unattended at the gambling tables in Vegas or Atlantic City. Of course you would eventually not have that pile of chips anyway since gambling, unlike investing, is ultimately a losing activity.

While the precious metals rallied yesterday, beaten down silver did much better than gold. Both were significantly down on Wednesday morning and shot up like rockets after the Fed announcement. It looks like a lot of traders were stopped out of both during the drop. I've seen this Wall Street racket played repeatedly over the years. Manipulators drive down the stock price driving the small players out and then a sudden reversal takes place and it shoots up to the sky. The inside players get the stock cheap and makes big profits, while the small investor is left holding the bag . Only if you have a accurate big picture of what is going on can you protect yourself from this type of shake down.

Oil continued its rally yesterday, closing at 51.61. This was the highest close since December 1st and represents a very significant breakout. Next resistance for the futures contract around $57. Natural gas finally joined the party and was up 42 cents to $4.10. This is a rally right off the bottom. Probably best to wait for some pull back from the initial rally if you want to buy. Gasoline and even heating oil had significant rallies yesterday as well. Oil has now rallied from the high 33's to over 52 in a month. During this entire time, the mainstream financial media has published one story after another about how oil can't rally until the economy improves and how oil can't rally because demand is declining. Nevertheless, oil has rallied sharply. Apparently the smart money doesn't pay any attention to the media, nor should you if you want to join the big money some day.

NEXT: Making a Silk Purse Out of a Sow's Ear

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21


This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.