Risks of Market Contagion from a Greek Default

 

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. We have coined this term to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government, which involve unprecedented money printing. This is the official blog of the New York Investing meetup.

While U.S. markets closed slightly up on Monday September 12th, panic reigned in Europe. The risks of a hard default by Greece reached 98% according to one model. Interest rates in Greece were spiraling out of control (the two-year government yield hit almost 70%) and credit default swaps on European sovereign and bank debt reached record levels again.

While Greece is a small economy and there are only two major countries --- France and Germany -- that hold substantial amounts of Greek government and corporate debt, this is only the very tip of the financial iceberg that threatens a titanic like sinking of world markets similar to what occurred during the 2008 Credit Crisis when Lehman Brothers collapsed. Problems in Greece are shared by two other small national economies, Ireland and Portugal, and by two much large economies, Spain and Italy. The Italian economy is roughly the size of the UK economy. It is too big to bail out. Can you imagine the UK defaulting and there being enough money available for an international rescue? If not, don't assume that problems with Italy can be fixed either. Spain is also too large to rescue.

Country defaults have implications well beyond their borders because large international banks have exposure to loans in them. In the global financial system, all large international banks are interconnected. Big banks such as Deutsche Bank, Société Générale, and Bank Paribas have substantial relationships with U.S. banks. The large banks are still in a weakened state from the 2008 crisis. This is showing up in British banks, which like the U.S. banks have limited exposure to Greek debt, and in Bank of America. Credit default swaps have reached record levels for some British banks and Bank of America's stock price keeps dropping.

The Greek default, and this will happen one way or the other at this point, will be similar to the demise of Lehman  in 2008. Contagion spread throughout the world financial system. In the U.S. the close to trillion dollar TARP program had to be instituted to hold up the banking system. In total, as much as $11 trillion in programs (the Federal Reserve alone had half a dozen major ones) had to be implemented to patch things up. The will for such an effort no longer exists, which will mute whatever response the authorities come up with will be delayed and muted. After Greece, something will have to be done with Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Those who think that the U.S. markets will be isolated from these events are at best engaging in wishful thinking and at worst are purposely misinforming the public.

Disclosure: None

Daryl Montgomery
Author: "Inflation Investing - A Guide for the 2010s"
Organizer, New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. There is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Big Bank Earnings Contradict Economic Recovery Claims

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. We have coined this term to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government, which involve unprecedented money printing. This is the official blog of the New York Investing meetup.


In its recent earnings report, JP Morgan revealed that it had a bigger loss in its retail financial services division in the fourth quarter of 2009, than it did at the height of the Credit Crisis in Q4 2008. Bank of America and Citibank earnings reports for last quarter also indicate that their lending and consumer credit operations remain troubled and that a U.S. economic recovery has yet to take place. The banks are only making money from their investment banking operations and this has offset major losses from lending activities - the core business for any bank.

The loss for JP Morgan in its retail financial services division (which includes mortgages) was $399 million in Q4 2009. The bank lost $306 million in its credit card division and this number would have been even worse if there hadn't been a payment holiday during the quarter. JP Morgan's provision for credit losses was $7.28 billion last quarter. Despite the steep losses in its lending arm, JP Morgan still reported earnings of $3.28 billion or 74 cents a share.

Unlike JP Morgan, Bank of America didn't report positive earnings, but said it lost $5.2 billion or 60 cents a share in the fourth quarter. The bank charged off $8.4 billion in bad loans. While this indicates a severely damaged loan portfolio, it was $1.2 billion lower than in the third quarter. Credit Card losses were $1.03 billion and these were much higher than in the fourth quarter of 2008. Investing banking earnings were up and this kept the reported losses from being much worse.

Citibank also reported a loss in the fourth quarter, 33 cents versus a loss of $3.40 a year ago. Its revenue from trading and investment banking was up 5.9%.  There was a loss of $2.33 billion in it local consumer lending operations. As bad as this was, it was still better than the $4.89 billion loss in the fourth quarter of 2008. Net credit losses for the bank were $7.13 billion versus $7.97 billion from a year earlier. Citibank added $706 million to its loan loss reserves.

Earnings for the big banks indicate that the U.S. economy is still in severe recession. Their lending operations are still experiencing massive losses and in some cases these have gotten worse than during the bleakest days of the Credit Crisis. Earnings have been held up through investing banking operations, which in turn have been helped by changes in accounting rules. Illusions can only work for so long for financial companies however. Investors seem to have quickly forgotten what happened to Bear Stearns in 2008. It was about to report positive first quarter earnings before it went under in March of that year. It had an $18 billion funding reserve and claimed it was solvent right up to the end. Even though the company had a reported book value of around $90 dollar a share (the number was slightly different depending on the source), the U.S. government valued it at $2 a share in the takeover its arranged from JP Morgan. Apparently the real numbers can be much worse than the reported ones for U.S. financial firms and investors should keep this in mind.

Disclosure: None

NEXT: Trouble in Euro Zone Boosts Dollar, Lowers Commodities

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

U.S. Employment Figures Don't Add Up

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. We have coined this term to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government, which involve unprecedented money printing. This is the official blog of the New York Investing meetup.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

Fed chair Ben Bernanke is up for reappointment and is experiencing some difficult times with his congressional critics. Good news has suddenly and conveniently appeared to bolster his case however, including Bank of America planning on repaying the TARP money it received from the U.S. government and then a big improvement on the non-farms payroll number released on December 3rd. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there were only 11,000 jobs lost in November 2009 and the losses for the previous couple of months weren't nearly as bad as they had reported (the last time there were actual job gains in the U.S. was in December 2007). Independent private surveys don't corroborate the government's numbers.

The U.S. government figures were not completely rosy by any means. They indicate that there were major job losses in Manufacturing and Construction, a significant drop in Information and in Leisure and Hospitality jobs, and amazingly a drop in Retail jobs during the height of the holiday season. U.S. Manufacturing employment fell by 41,000 in November and has declined by an eye-popping 2.1 million since the recession began in December 2007. Construction jobs fell by 27,000. There was also a loss of 17,000 jobs in the Information industries (half of that in telecommunications). Leisure and Hospitality lost 11,000 jobs. Jobs in retail declined by 15,000. You would not know this from reading the BLS press release however, unless you looked at the data attached to the bottom of it. The copy did not mention that there was a job loss in retail, but instead stated "there was little change in wholesale and retail employment".

So where did the job gains come from? Three categories had increases in employment -Professional and Business Services, Education and Health Services and Government. Professional and Business Services was the big gainer adding 86,000 jobs. However, 52,000 of those jobs were part-time. Education and Health Services added 40,000 jobs with 21,000 of these jobs coming from Health Care and presumably 19,000 from Education (which is not known for hiring people in November). Government added 7,000 jobs. The two consistent job producers since the recession began two years ago have been the Government and Health Care categories, with Education also frequently adding jobs (many health care and education jobs are government related).

The BLS claimed that unemployment fell from 10.2% to 10.0% in November. How can the unemployment rate fall when there are job losses? People have to leave the labor force. Barring a sudden population decrease of working age individuals, workers have to get so discouraged form the bad employment situation that they just give up looking. According to the BLS, 2.3 million people are marginally attached to the labor force and are not counted as unemployed because they did not look for a job in the previous four weeks. Another 9.2 million are working part-time even though they want full-time employment. The alternative unemployment rate which includes discouraged workers and involuntary part-time workers was reported by the BLS as 17.2%.

A check on U.S. government employment figures can be gotten from the ISM (Institute of Supply Management) Services and Manufacturing Indices, both of which survey employment as well as a number of other factors which indicate economic growth or lack thereof. The Services Index was released just yesterday and employment came in at 41.6 (under 50 means contraction). Employment in the services sector has been in decline for the last 19 months and dropped from October to November according to the ISM. All the job gains in the government employment report supposedly came from the service sector. There is a major contradiction here.

The November non-farms payroll figures are another government release indicating the U.S. economy is getting better. This one doesn't add up either. Healthy economies don't have major job losses in manufacturing and construction. Nor are jobs lost in retail during the holiday season (they are during depressions, but certainly not if the economy is improving). The big job gains were part-time, not permanent. The unemployment rate is improving because workers are so discouraged that they are leaving the labor force, not because jobs are being added. This doesn't happen if the economy is getting better either. Furthermore private surveys don't support the governments numbers. Investors should be wary. While markets can be fooled in the short-term, in the long-term they trade on reality.

Disclosure: None.

NEXT: Gold in Technical Correction as Dollar Rallies

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21


This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

What Earnings Are Telling Us

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. We have coined this term to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government, which involve unprecedented money printing. This is the official blog of the New York Investing meetup.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

In general, company earnings are coming in ahead of extremely lowered expectations this quarter. This is a typical Wall Street game of setting the bar low enough so things look good, no matter how bad they are. The big success stories this quarter are technology firms, such as Intel, Apple, Yahoo and Sandisk. Tech earnings are cyclical however and the big traders tend to sell when earnings look the best. It is not clear yet if we are at that point his quarter. The large majority of tech company earnings come from outside the U.S. and their business picking up says more about the state of the economy in East Asia than it does about the U.S. economy.

In contrast to tech, banks are in increasingly bad shape, even in the cases where they are reporting good earnings. Wells Fargo's earnings were out today. Well Fargo said credit losses rose to $5.1 billion, up from $2 billion a year ago and $4.4 billion in the second quarter. Even though this is the bank's core business, it reported a profit of 56 cents per share last quarter, higher than the 49 cents reported a year ago. Wells is the fourth largest bank in the U.S. The pattern of deteriorating loan portfolios was also seen in Bank of America, Citigroup, and JP Morgan. Loan losses also increased in the second quarter. These numbers don't indicate that U.S. consumers and businesses are in good financial shape, nor that any economic recovery is taking place.

As for the the banking system having been saved, we will have to wait to see what happens when the unlimited flow of federal funds is cut off. TARP is supposed to expire at the end of this year. Today, however, President Obama is going to announce a $5 billion program to bail out community banks. Obama will tout the new program as funding to help these banks increase loans. TARP was supposed to accomplish this goal as well. Available U.S. consumer credit has taken a nosedive in the last year since TARP was implemented. There is obviously no lie too outrageous that Washington won't keep repeating it and the U.S. mainstream media won't print it.

It should also be kept in mind that many large cap firms other than tech get a lot of their earnings overseas. As the dollar falls, earnings made in other currencies increase proportionately. Once again this is not an indication of any U.S. economic recovery, but of U.S. economic weakness. The falling dollar is at least finally getting some coverage in the financial press. Business Week had a story on it in its latest issue. This is going to continue to be a big story for many years to come.

NEXT: Dance of the Declining Dollar Continues

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21


This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Bank Earnings Reveal True State of Economy

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. We have coined this term to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government, which involve unprecedented money printing. This is the official blog of the New York Investing meetup.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

Consumer spending represented 72% of the U.S. economy before the Credit Crisis hit. During the 2000s, that spending was fueled by easy credit and free money thanks to Federal Reserve and legislative policy. The borrowing binge hid a deteriorating economy for years and alternative economic statistics indicate that the U.S. has really been in a recession almost the entire last nine years. The bill has now come due and it is going to take many years to pay it off. The economy can not have a sustainable recovery under such circumstances no matter how many times Ben Bernanke and mainstream economists say this is happening. Wishing just doesn't make it so.

Bernanke has repeatedly told the world how he and the other central bankers saved the financial system from disaster (modesty along with good reality perception are not his strong points). It would be more accurate to state that they postponed disaster with their actions. It addition to an almost unlimited amount of money pumped into the global financial system (much of it freshly off the proverbial printing press), the U.S. changed its accounting rules on the toxic debt held by the big banks so massive losses could suddenly disappear into thin air. Big bank earnings rose spectacularly last quarter as a result. This blog pointed out at that time that losses for the lending operations - the reason banks are in business - were deteriorating however. This deterioration was being hidden by big 'gains' in bank's trading operations (thanks to the change in accounting rules). Those losses have continued to grow this quarter and for many banks are now outpacing the phantom gains from accounting tricks.

The two biggest U.S. banks at the beginning of the Credit Crisis were Citigroup and Bank of America. Last quarter Citi lost 27 cents per share versus a 61 cents loss in Q3 in 2008. Citi had $8 billion in net credit losses and increased its net loan loss reserves by $802 million between July and September. Bank of America lost 26 cents in Q3 versus a gain of 39 cents a year ago. Bank of America's credit losses last quarter were almost $10 billion ( a billion higher than in Q2) and it added a whopping $2.1 billion to its loan loss reserves. Credit card losses for Bank of America were $1.04 billion last quarter versus only $167 million a year earlier.Supposed 'gains' from trading operations kept the top line numbers from being much worse.

Does this look like a banking system that has been saved? Does this look like what would happen in a recovering economy? If the government took back the $45 billion in TARP funds from Citigroup would it be in business the next day? If not, it is insolvent. Ditto for Bank of America. As long as these banks (and others) are in the too big to fail category, money printing is going to be necessary to pay for the continued bailouts that they'll need. Government largess is the reason the stocks of these banks have not collapsed back to last years levels. The same can be said for the stock market overall.

NEXT: Big Bust on Wall Street

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Bernanke Reappointed, Court Order and FDIC

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

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Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke is going to be reappointed for another 4 year term. Obama decided to reappoint Bernanke because he wanted to keep together the team that had weathered the Credit Crisis, an administration official said. This is of course like reappointing the team that did such a 'good job' handling Hurricane Katrina. Just as Bush praised those incompetents, 'change you can believe in' Obama praised Bernanke for preventing another depression. Bernanke was first appointed by Bush and didn't foresee the Credit Crisis coming, nor did he respond appropriately once it did. There is of course also no evidence that another depression has been prevented . So far, it is just some fantasy that politicians inside the Beltway keep repeating to each other.

In other Fed related news, a federal court in New York has ordered the Fed make available information from 11 of its Credit Crisis programs to the public. The court ruled that the Fed improperly withheld records under the Freedom of Information law. Bloomberg News sued (kudos to them) and is trying to find out how much money was given to which banks. In its defense of the case, the Fed (which I would like to remind you is only a quasi-governmental entity - the big banks own stock in it and have their representatives sit on the Fed's regional board of directors) essentially maintained that it was above the law. Undermining our democratic system - just another example of the 'good job' that Ben Bernanke has been doing.

The FDIC is also in the news again. For some reason, even though the Credit Crisis is supposedly over and the economy is recovering U.S. bank failures are skyrocketing. The agency needs new bidders for failed banks because existing banks are now avoiding purchasing them. The FDIC's deposit insurance funds are also getting depleted. The FDIC is proposing a rule change that will allow private equity firms to buy failed banks and maintain capital ratios of 10% instead of 15%. This will of course make the failed banks likely to fail again - and I bet the private equity firms will scream for a government bailout when this happens. Indy Mac and Bank United were already sold to private equity firms earlier this year. Based on this news, we can presume that the FDIC is not using the Bernanke approach of threatening to fire any bank president that doesn't agree to the government's proposed takeover demands, as happened with Bank America. Since these banks are NOT too big to fail, they are not being directly nationalized as was AIG or indirectly nationalized as was the case with most of the big U.S. commercial banks and brokers. Undermining our capitalist system - just another example of the 'good job' that Ben Bernanke has done.

The biggest danger in any crisis is leadership that is oblivious and is in denial. The crisis only gets worse under such circumstances. Bernanke has been a disaster as a federal reserve chair by any criteria that you wish to measure his tenure by. Obama is not only totally ignorant of basic economics and devoid of any ideas for handling our current situation, but is even oblivious to what the current situation is. His actions remind me of Herbert Hoover's famous June 1930 press conference stating the Depression was over. Hoover was more than a decade early.

NEXT: Consumer Confidence Game and Housing's False Bottom

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21


This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

CIT - Last Minute Reprieve

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

In a last minute development, commercial lender CIT has secured a $3 billion bailout from its bondholders thereby saving the company from filing for bankruptcy protection - at least for the moment. The rescue includes a $3 billion loan which is not due until 2.5 years from now. $2 billion is going to be committed immediately and another billion is to become available within 10 days. The bailout is supposedly taking place without government intervention (and the moon is made of green cheese). The media is trumpeting that this represents a new phase of the financial crisis and indicates how much things are improving. Don't believe it for a moment.

CIT is going to restructure its debt. Lenders are trying to get $825 for each $1000 worth of notes. There is a billion worth of senior notes alone. The company has established a steering committee of bondholders that will work on drawing up a number of debt swap offers designed to alleviate CIT's debt burden and further shore up the company's cash position. A question everyone should be asking is who are the people who are going to put the money up for this and what is their relationship with the Fed and U.S. Treasury.

Meanwhile a report is out that some of the biggest recipients of TARP bailout funds, including Bank of America and Morgan Stanley, increased their spending on lobbying in the second quarter as Congress began to look closely at revamping the rule system for financial institutions. Fortunately, members of congress aren't known to be for sale. Their votes are another story however.

NEXT: Bernanke Says Not to Worry - You Should Worry

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Bank Profits Soar Even Though Business is Bad

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

The Nasdaq hit a new high yesterday for the rally that began in early March. All the indices have had major rallies in the last several days, rising off a technical picture that indicated extreme weakness. Good earnings news, starting with Goldman Sachs and followed by the other major banks and brokers, bulled the market up. While the headline numbers look good, the rest of the picture indicates business is still deteriorating.

The two poster children of big bank insolvency, Bank of America and Citibank, released earnings today. Both had huge profits, but not because of their lending, which is what they are in business to do. Bank of America claimed a $2.42 billion profit, despite continued losses from failed loans. The bank had to increase its loan loss provisions by $13.4 billion. JP Morgan Chase also had increases in failed loans when it reported earlier. So how did these banks make money? It came from their trading businesses. Goldman also made huge profits from its trading business. It looks like all the big financials are making lots of money from their trading businesses. I wonder where all that money is coming from? Well, I guess it's good to have friends at the Fed and U.S. Treasury.

Citibank reported a profit of $3 billion, but only because it had a $6.7 billion gain on the sale of Smith Barney. As long as it can continue to sell Smith Barney every quarter, it's earnings will hold up. If not, it could be in trouble. Citi also recorded gains on assets that had lost value during the Credit Crisis, but which it claims are gaining back their value. In case you forgot, Washington changed the accounting rules awhile ago to allow the big banks and brokers to create an illusion of prosperity where none really exists. For some reason 'make believe' accounting didn't work for Bear Stearns, which literally went out of business overnight.

The banking system will not be healthy again until banks are lending and making money from their lending operations. This has not happened yet and increases in loan loss provisions indicates things are still getting worse, despite the half a dozen Fed programs to take these bad loans away from the banks. At this point, Bernanke has had two years to deal with this problem and he has yet to show any success with his give-away programs. His efforts have only helped the big banks cover up the existing problems. His side kick Geithner is now busy forcing CIT into bankruptcy, even though it lends money to a million small and medium size businesses. That's certainly going to help get more loan money into the economy. For those of us who want things to get better, 'make believe' seems to be the only option left open. Maybe we should close our eyes and try to wish hard enough.

NEXT: CIT - Last Minute Reprieve

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21


This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Banks Get Swine Flu; William Cohan at New York Investing

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

The long awaited bank stress test is scheduled to be out this Thursday. There have already been more leaks in this government PR gambit than in a sinking ship. Meanwhile, the Swine Flu panic is winding down, with an article by TIME magazine this morning questioning whether all the hoopla was justified (see the Sunday and Saturday entries for this blog for a detailed analysis for why it wasn't). And finally, I will be interviewing best-selling author William Cohan at the New York Investing meetup tomorrow. Whether or not you saw him on the Daily Show with John Stuart or elsewhere on TV, this is your chance to see him in person.

In the news out today, Citigroup and Bank of America are stating that they are going to be raising $10 billion more in capital to shore up their reserves. Didn't both of these banks say they were profitable in the first quarter and planning on returning TARP funds? Something seems to be inconsistent with this story. Wells Fargo and PNC Financial also need more capital. The U.S. banking system is by no means stable yet and if the Fed withdraw all the funding it is providing from its half dozen or so programs, almost every major U.S. bank would collapse immediately.

While it is difficult for the average person to understand how poorly the government has handled the Credit Crisis, it is much easier to see how badly they have handled the current outbreak of swine flu (the 1976 outbreak was bungled as well and had tragic consequences for hundreds of people who participated in the government's vaccination program - there was only one supposed swine flu death). A number of the top government medical authorities made dire warnings of impending tragedy and sounded the alarm bells at top volume in the last two weeks. Not only is there no rising death toll as they warned us about, but there are no deaths at all outside of Mexico. Even the supposed deaths that have taken place in Mexico are questionable. Over a week ago, Mexico claimed 160 deaths from swine flu had taken place, the current claim is 20. Mexico's health care statistics seem to be about as reliable as most U.S. banks financial statements (see the previous blog entry for more about this).

If you are in the New York metro area, you should be coming to the May 5th meeting of the New York Investing meetup tomorrow (PS 41, 116 West 11th Street at 6th Avenue, starting at 6:45PM, for more details see: http://investing.meetup.com/21). I will be interviewing William Cohan about his latest book, "House of Cards", which is about the demise of Bear Stearns (New York Investing was the first major group to predict that this would happen in August 2007). Cohan doesn't make a lot of personal appearances, so this is your opportunity to not only hear what he has to say about the Credit Crisis, but get him to sign of copy of his book for you.

NEXT: Market Getting Frothy; Meeting tonight for New York Investing

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

The Gold is in Eastern Capitalism

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

The head of China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange stated last night that China's gold reserves were 1054 metric tons, up substantially from previously reported levels. Purchasing gold, along with a whole host of commodities including oil and copper, seems to be China's strategy for getting rid of some of its almost $2 trillion worth of foreign reserve holdings (about half of which are in U.S. dollars). In separate news, a report by Deutsche Bank now predicts that China's GDP will be bigger than the U.S. GDP by the early 2020's. Based on recent reports of U.S. government chicanery in the manipulation of the financial system, capitalism seems to be disappearing in the U.S while it's on the increase in Communist China.

I have long predicted that the Chinese would be increasing their gold reserves, which are paltry compared to the current size of their economy. China also needs to diminish its foreign exchange holdings before the paper that its holding seriously devalues. These efforts have only just begun. Despite buying gold and stockpiling commodities, China's foreign reserves were up slightly to $1.954 trillion at the end of Q1 2009 from $1.946 trillion at the end of Q4 2008. In order to actually diminish its paper holdings, China is going to have to ramp up gold and commodity purchases substantially from recent levels. The implications are bullish for the commodity markets to say the least. China is not the only economy with small gold reserves and large foreign exchange holdings either, the Gulf Oil states fit this description as well. They also have good reason to be buying gold.

As China rises because it is becoming more capitalistic, the U.S. economy is heading down because of it is becoming less so. For anyone who doubts that the U.S. is turning into an authoritarian socialist state where the government calls the shots and no free is left in free enterprise, I suggest you read recent reports about the Bank of America and Merrill Lynch merger. It was arranged by Fed Chair Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Paulson (both Republicans and appointed by a supposedly conservative Republican president). When Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis tried to back out of the deal when he realized it could take his company down, Bernanke and Paulson told Lewis he and the board of Bank of America would be removed if he didn't go along with what the government wanted (recall that the CEO of General Motors was recently ousted and think about the implications for a moment). Lewis also claims Bernanke and Paulson directed him to lie to Bank of America shareholders, who remained uninformed about the actual state of things when they had to vote to approve the Merrill takeover. The government which is supposed to protect shareholders has obviously become one of their biggest enemies. We have pointed this out a number of times in this blog. Unlike the press, which is reporting this story now, the New York Investing meetup has been warning about this for over a year and a half.

Given the current state of affairs, no one should be surprised that China will over take the U.S. economically in as little as 10 years or so - at least based on official government figures. Keep in mind that the U.S. has overstated its GDP for many years and China may have been understating its GDP during its rapid growth phase. Investors needs to keep an eye to the East as economic power shifts there. The U.S. is now at a similar point historically that Great Britain was after World War I. Britain's world dominance was on the wane, while the more rough and tumble capitalistic U.S. was on the rise. Instead of facing this reality and making changes, the British engaged in denial and this assured their fall. The U.S is doing the same thing right now.

NEXT: Buy When There's Flu in the Streets

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Analysis of Tuesday's Market Action

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

Stocks had a spectacular rally yesterday, with the Dow being up 5.8%, the S&P 500 6.4% and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 7.1%. Many individual stocks did much better. Unfortunately the rally was lead by insolvent financials (Citi up 38% and Bank of America up 28%). Nothing has really changed to fix their problems and make them worth something. Many beaten down commodity stocks posted double digit gains as well and unlike financials these have real long term value. Inflation hedges, gold and silver declined while stocks went up and oil showed weakness in the afternoon. While the charts indicate a stock rally should be taking place right around this point, a test of the lows (with a lower low by no means out of the question) is likely again within about two weeks or so and after that a longer lasting rally is possible.

This rally will only be a Bear Market rally. Buy and hold for stocks is dead for the moment. This is not a bad thing however. It just requires a different investing mindset. Ignore the media pundits that continually point out that it's only a Bear Market rally as if somehow the money you make from it doesn't count. Bear Market rallies can provide you with the biggest profits in the shortest period of time - what more could an investor want? The biggest monthly rallies of all time in U.S. stocks were in fact in the 1930s during the Great Depression. The Dow was up 40% in April 1933 (it best month ever) and 35% in August 1932.

As we mentioned yesterday, a 'leaked' memo from Citigroup CEO Pandit set off the rally. This memo was reported to have said the Citi was 'profitable' for the first two months of the year. This seems to have been based on Citi having high revenue numbers (sales) in January and February - just as it did in every quarter where it had massive losses because of all the write downs it had to take. Just as changes in demand mean nothing unless you know changes in supply, revenues mean nothing unless you know expenses. It is amazing that traders fall for this blatant manipulation, but it works like a charm every time, which is why it continues.

The demand without supply argument has been the prevalent press coverage for the oil market for some time now. Oil dropped yesterday afternoon because the U.S. Energy Department cut its demand for global oil use by 1.4 million barrels a day for 2009 (rumors preceded the actual announcement). This has led to a lot more press today about falling demand for oil and how bearish this is. Traders sold oil down on this 'bad' news. Assuming that this agency has the slightest idea of what it is doing (I am not vouching for that), this was actually very bullish news. How can that be? Sometimes in the very same articles, which stated how negative the demand situation is, you could find that OPEC has cut production quotas by 4.2 million barrels a day (many discount this number to something lower). Let's see, demand is falling by 1.4 million barrels and supply is falling by a much larger 4.2 million barrels and the conclusion is that the price will go down. Did any of the financial reporters writing these articles pass Intro Economics? Doesn't look like it.

If you do have a longer term perspective, you will be better off buying commodity stocks. Since governments can't 'print' huge amounts of excess money without debasing their currency (another elementary idea from Intro Economics), lots of price inflation is inevitable and the value of tangible assets will be rising. Nice rallies took place in non-precious metal stocks yesterday, such as PCU, ZINC, AA and to a lesser extent FCX (as disclosure, I have held FCX for a couple of months now and bought some AA on Monday). Steel companies such as X also did spectacularly well. These are all strongly influenced by what is taking place in China and its desire to accumulate commodities for future use, so keep that in mind. The current economic situation is more than a bit iffy there, with bad trade numbers being released this morning.

While inflation hedges gold and silver weren't doing well yesterday, a report was released indicating confidence in U.S. sovereign debt has been deteriorating for the last year. Credit default swaps (CDSs are insurance for bonds) for U.S. treasuries are now being priced at seven times higher than they were twelve months ago. During the same period, CDSs for investment grade companies haven't even doubled. On the other hand, CDS rates for leading U.S. banks and brokers hit a record high this Monday. The big money players have little confidence in the U.S. financial system and are starting to question the viability of U.S. debt itself ... but don't worry, the U.S. government can always print more money to deal with the problem.

NEXT: How Media Manipulates Investors to do the Wrong Thing

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Oil Yes, Financials No

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

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Suddenly, oil inventories in Cushing, Oklahoma dropped by 200,000 barrels yesterday instead of increasing by 3.5 million barrels that industry 'experts' predicted. While I have predicted that this would happen in this blog and stated so at a class given this Tuesday by the New York Investing meetup, I was a lone voice in the wilderness. Before the news came out, oil ETFs were making new lows as were many financial stocks. While superficially oil and the financials looks like major bargains, only oil should be assumed to be so.

When the 'surprise' (only a surprise to people who get their information from the mass media) news came out that oil stocks had declined, the March contract for Light Sweet Crude jumped $4.86 to close at $39.48. April, which will be the front month after today, closed at $40.18. Anecdotal reports indicate supply is drying up, but you will not see any coverage of this in the American press, other than in relationship to OPEC. For those who are unaware of it (and this presumably includes all reporters on energy topics), every oil and gas lease in the United States contains a term that the producer can stop pumping if the prices aren't high enough. Based on the behavior of the oil futures, which have jumped back to the $40 level over and over again, the market is telling us a price under $40 a barrel just isn't sustainable.

Nevertheless, the coverage in the media today is once again the same old (off-key) song. You will see quotes like, "It was a significant move last night, but there's not much out there that can create a bullish story" . And the reason for this is, "The demand outlook is very weak, and there's nothing to suggest that it will improve in the near term." There is no analysis of the supply side of the equation, despite the news out of Cushing, Oklahoma yesterday. Supply dropping faster than demand is indeed a bullish story. The same reporters who know nothing about how the oil industry functions, also seem to have forgotten to take high school economics. The current coverage of oil is an excellent example of why the average investor who gets his or her (mis)information from the mass media can't make money in the markets.

While oil had a big pop up yesterday, financials hit their lows in many cases and remained at those levels. Citigroup fell to 2.50, Wells Fargo to 11.94 and Amex to 12.74. Bank of America dropped as low as 3.86, only a tinge above its low of 3.77. Collapsing financials led the market down and helped the Dow close at a six-year low. The possibility of a Swedish style bailout of the big banks is becoming more of a reality. This would wipe out the equity holders completely (which include every major pension fund in the United States as well as Wall Street insiders) and has been resisted for that reason. While there is a risk of losing everything if you buy financial stocks, no such risk exists with oil. All commodities have a minimal price which is the cost of production. The minimal price for a troubled stock however is zero.

NEXT: Stocks/Oil Trying to Bottom, Gold at Resistance

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

The Latest From Davos Switzerland

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

The invitation only annual World Economic Forum - a meeting of world leaders, central bank heads, economists from big financial firms, and billionaire investors - is currently taking place at Davos, Switzerland. In an opening forum, the people who pull the strings of the global economy and stock markets came to the following conclusions (long after they have been obvious to everyone else):

1. The world is facing unprecedented economic challenges.
2. Fiscal packages may not be enough to restore economic growth.
3. The multilateral financial system needs strengthening.

Fortunately, George Soros gave an early talk that had somewhat more substance than the above long-on-platitudes and short-on-specifics comments. At the same time, Nouriel Roubini who is in Switzerland, but possibly not at the conference, released a purposely well-timed statement about just how costly it would be to fix the banking system.

Soros stated that the current crisis has the potential to be worse than the one during the Great Depression in the 1930s. According to his calculations, the global banking system in developed countries still needs an additional $1.5 trillion to be rescued. Furthermore, the only way to pay for this is with money creation, or in other words - inflation. Nouriel Roubini now says that he estimates the total global bank losses from the Credit Crisis will be $3.6 trillion, far higher than his original estimates (and mine as well, last July at a talk at St. Johns University, I estimated $2 trillion, which was double the consensus at the time). Roubini further stated the biggest U.S. banks are insolvent (New York Investing first said Citibank was insolvent at the end of 2007).

Expect some talk about the two approaches to fixing failed banking systems. These are the Japanese model and the Swedish model. The Japanese reacted to their failed banking system in the 1990s by propping up as many failed institutions for as long as possible and the consequence was economic and stock market stagnation that has now lasted almost two decades. The Swedes had a banking collapse in the mid-90s and took that opposite approach. They took swift and drastic action, which was painful in the short term, but proved highly successful and their economy revived quickly. So far, the United States has come closest to the failed Japanese model in dealing with the banking crisis. The political will to step on some very rich and powerful vested interests has been lacking as has the willingness to admit that top U.S. banks such as Citibank and Bank of America are insolvent.

One person that is not yet at Davos is Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke. He is busy keeping fed funds rates at zero at the Fed meeting in Washington. The meeting ends today and presumably he will be jetting off to Switzerland shortly thereafter. Expect the quality of debate at Davos to suffer accordingly.

NEXT: Government Wants to Play Good Bank, Bad Bank

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Unemployment Everywhere

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

Just the morning alone the following job cuts were announced:
1. Caterpillar profit falls 32% in Q4, to cut 20,000 jobs.
2. Sprint to eliminate 8,000 jobs.
3. Phillips to cut 6,000 jobs after first loss in 5 years.
4. Home Depot to close Expo and Design business and cut 5,000 jobs.

These companies represent a range of industries showing the current recession/depression is having its impact almost everywhere. The one exception in the news today was McDonald's. Although the headlines said its earning were down, this was only a quirk resulting from tax payments. McDonald's is actually planning on opening 1000 news outlets in the next year, although not necessarily in the U.S. (most reporting failed to mentioned this), since its big growth areas are overseas. Nevertheless, for the moment the very low-paid jobs at McDonald's seem secure. This can not be said about much of the rest of the retail industry (the biggest private sector employer) however. Expect massive job cuts and store closings starting this spring.

The people responsible for the Credit Crisis are still mostly employed (and getting big bonuses as well). One of the recent exceptions in John Thain, the recently fired CEO of the financial cesspool Merrill Lynch. In a leaked memo, Thain claims that Bank of America CEO Ken Lewis knew about $4 billion in accelerated bonus payments to Merrill executives (apparently paid for with taxpayer money from TARP) and Merrill's Q4 losses (something a mentally challenged 5 year old with vision and hearing problems could have figured out, but not the CEO of one the biggest banks in the world). As discussed in this blog several days ago, Ken Lewis extorted the U.S. government to pony up more TARP funds because of these 'unanticipated' issues cropping up and threatened to KO the Merrill takeover if it didn't. John Thain will probably be remembered for his $35,000 toilet - an especially appropriate symbol for where most of U.S taxpayer Wall Street bailout money has gone.

There was 'good' news reported (never confuse reported from the mass media and reality) overseas this morning. Barclay's stock was up as much as 75% because of a big buffer in equity capital and reserves (something that Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bear Stearn's and Lehman also claimed .... just before they went under). I can't say this is not true in Barclay's case because the UK government may have pumped enough money into the bank to make this possible. What I can say, is that traders never learn and can be duped over and over and over again with misinformation from the mass media which it will report over and over and over again and never question no matter how absurd it is.

NEXT: The Canary in the Coal Mine, Foxes Guarding the Chicken Coop

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Volatility is Back

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

The market was up yesterday almost completely erasing the large losses from the day before. The beaten down financial stocks led the way up as if insolvent banks and brokers are now suddenly doing better. Well they're not, but their stocks were doing better in what is obviously a short covering rally that was pushed to the max by media reports of insider buying (more accurately portrayed as insider manipulation of the media, with full cooperation of the media itself).

The Dow was up 3.5% to close at 8228, above the psychological important level 8000. Nasdaq was up 4.6%. IBM reported (please note the use of the word reported as opposed to had) good earnings. Bank stocks were the big gainers however and this was true in Europe as well as the U.S. Both Citigroup and Bank of America were up 31%, not so difficult when you are selling in the single digits (the low single digits in Citi's case). Bank of New York was up 24%. And Tuesday's poster child for stock market disaster, State Street, managed a 15% rally. The rallies were more muted in Europe however. Barclays, which has lost half its value since the beginning of the year, was up 5% and Bank of Scotland only 9%. In Germany, Deutsche Bank was up 10% and Commerzbank 13%. Belgium's bailout baby, KBC, was still falling though after already losing 70% in the last three weeks and receiving a two billion euro cash injection.

The rally in bank stocks started out as the usual dead cat (or more appropriately dead bank) bounce. It really got going when news hits the wires about top management buying their own beaten down financial shares. Anyone who might think this was a case of blatant manipulation would have a lot of evidence on their side. When was the last time you saw a blaring headline, 'Insiders Dumping Bank Stocks', especially if it happened the day before? Lot's of luck in finding that one. Yet, yesterday's news trumpeted, Bank of America and JP Morgan insiders buying their stock. You would have had to read well into any article however to find out that in the case of JP Morgan, the buying took place last Friday before the stock was pounded down even more on Tuesday. As for the insight of bank management insiders, these were the people who brought us the current Credit Crisis and didn't see it coming. The head of Bank of America thought it was a brilliant move for the bank to buy Countrywide Financial and later on agreed to buy Merrill Lynch, two purchases that are destroying the bank. Now, we should assume his judgement has suddenly sharpened. Yeahhh ..... that can happen!

The earnings of financials are so bad they are disproportionately responsible for dragging down the earnings of the S&P 500. For Q4 of 2008, a 20% drop in corporate earnings is now expected. Before earnings season began a 15% drop was projected, but results have been worse than orginally thought. Wall Street analysts have once again underestimated how bad things are, just as Wall Street economists have done with the economic figures. I have never heard of anyone on Wall Street being fired for being continually and consistently inaccurate. In fact, it seems to be the ticket to getting to the top there. Something to think about for anyone who relies on insider purchases to indicate banks are turning around.

NEXT: Britain Points the Way to U.S. Economic Future

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Banking Bloodbath Covers Wall Street in Red

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

The bloodletting on financial stocks was almost relentless in U.S. trading yesterday. Trouble began in Europe the day before with the collapse of Royal Bank of Scotland stock, a collapse which took place despite (and some are now saying because of) a second bailout of the banking system by British authorities. The U.S. markets were closed for the Martin Luther King holiday, but when they reopened banks and brokers were cut to pieces. It was not a propitious beginning for the new Presidency.

Action in the market overall was ugly Tuesday and while financials led the way down, selling wasn't isolated to just that sector. While the Dow was down 4.0% and closed below the psychologically key support level of 8000, the technology laden Nasdaq suffered even more. The Nasdaq's 5.8% loss was a crash level drop. While the rest of the market fell apart, the gold ETF GLD gapped up sharply for the second day in the row, showing incredibly strong technical strength. As it has done throughout history, gold was shining once again in the midst of a crisis.

To say the drop in some financial stocks was a crash would actually be understating the situation. State Street was cut in half with a 50% drop. PNC was down 41%. Even though Bank of America was down 'only' 29% it hit yet another yearly low and without additional intervention (it was bailed out only a few days ago) the stock looks like it is headed toward oblivion . Citi, down 20% on the day, also managed to hit a yearly low and dropped below $3. The detailed action in the financials below:

State Street down 50 percent to 21.46.
PNC down 41 percent to 22.00.
Bank of America down 29 percent to 5.10.
Wells Fargo down 24 percent to 14.03.
Suntrust Banks down 24 percent to 15.07.
Citigroup down 20 percent to 2.80.
JPMorgan Chase down 20 percent to 18.09.
Goldman Sachs down 19 percent to 59.20.
Deutsche Bank down 19 percent to 21.00.
U.S. Bancorp down 16 percent to 15.34.
Morgan Stanley down 16 percent to 13.10.
UBS down 16 percent to 10.00.
Credit Suisse down18 percent to 19.76.
HSBC down 15 percent to 33.83.

Some recovery is taking place today in the banks and brokers because of Geithner's statements about more banking bailouts. Of course, that approach hasn't worked well so far. However, nothing succeeds like failure in recent U.S. economic policy.

NEXT: Volatility is Back

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Subprime Housing Leads to Subprime Financial Institutions

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

The housing reports released in October 2007 which indicated the state of the market in September were even more dismal than those of the prior month. Nationally, foreclosures had doubled year over year and they had gone up as much as 500% to a 1000% in the worst hit bubble areas of the housing market. Existing Home Sales were down 23% nationally. Although also down substantially, New Home Sales were nevertheless reported as increasing (huh?).

The September 2007 New Home Sales report was a classic example of how the financial media frequently reports bad news as good and hopes people only read the headlines and not the fine print. The New Home Sales report originally indicated that there had been 795,000 houses sold in August. The report then indicated 770,000 houses sold in September. This drop of 25,000 was heralded by the media as a increase of 4.8%. This happened because the sales figures for August were revised downward to 735,000 (by almost 8%, an incredible error for a statistical report) and the September figure was above this number, so this indicated that sales were going up! The first thought of any rational person should of course have been, 'if the numbers for August were actually much lower, why shouldn't the ones for September be much lower as well?' Even a casual look inside the September report lent substantial support that this was indeed the case. Sales in the West, probably the worst hit housing area in the U.S., were supposedly up 38% - a completely absurd number and an indication that the September numbers were being overstated just as the August numbers had been.

Despite the complete devastation in housing sales., median house prices were reported up 2.5%. The statistical tricks that led to this impossible outcome were discussed previously in this blog in the posting, "Housing Market Collapses, but the Statistics Hold Up".

House sales were falling off a cliff because mortgage money was disappearing. By October 2007, 183 mortgage lenders had already closed their doors since the previous December. One that didn't was Countrywide, the largest mortgage lender in the United States and therefore presumably too big to fail. What kept Countrywide afloat was a $2 billion capital infusion in August from Bank of America. Barron's reported that there were rumors that this bailout had been secretly arranged by the U.S. federal government. If so, it would only be the first of many bailouts that the Feds would have to arrange to prop up failing American financial institutions. Shortly thereafter, one of the major British mortgage lenders, Northern Rock, experienced a run on the bank - the first in England since the 19th century. Northern Rock had been known for it 125% mortgages and when word got out that it needed an emergency loan from the Bank of England, depositors queued up for blocks desperate to get their money out. While the Bank of England directly provided capital to keep Northern Rock going, this approach would prove to be no more successful than the more circumspect American one. Both Countrywide and Northern Rock would barely survive into 2008.

Next: What Banks and Enron Had Common

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer, New York Investing meetup

For more about us, please go to: http://investing.meetup.com/21