The Bull Heard Around the World

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

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Almost every market throughout the world rallied on April 1st. In the morning (New York time) things didn't look promising. While most Asian markets had closed up nicely, all European bourses were down well into their trading day. Stocks in New York then gapped down sharply. Within a relatively short time, both New York and Europe reversed and then closed with good numbers. Today has been even more bullish. In Asia, the Hang Seng rose over 1000 points, closing up over 7%. The Nikkei went up over 4%. The Dax in Germany closed up more than 6%.

The European rally was helped by the ECB cutting interest rates by 25 basis points to 1.25%. They are also considering buying up toxic assets which the Fed in the U.S. has been doing for sometime now. At the G20 meeting in London, France and Germany pursued stronger financial regulation aimed at tax havens, hedge funds and rating agencies. European leaders said they had no need for stimulus plans because their more generous welfare systems kick in automatically with benefits for more people as the economy deteriorates. Obama kept emphasizing that 'we are all in this together'.

Meanwhile in the U.S., the financial accounting standards board FASB gave companies more leeway when valuing assets and reporting losses, providing a potential boost to battered banks' balance sheets. The mark to market system, will now be replaced with a mark to fantasy system. FASB made its move because of pressure from Capitol Hill. Our elected representatives are demanding rules that help companies mislead investors. In case you had any doubt whose side they are on, it should be pretty obvious with this action. If this was actually something that worked, Enron would managed to have avoided imploding and still be in business because it lied about its financial numbers. The banks may be able to carry on however since they have an apparently unlimited supply of freshly minted federal money available for continually bailing them out. Of course, like every other free lunch program the Feds have come up with, the costs for this one will be heavy indeed.

Money has flowed into stocks globally in the last two days and this indicates the big money is supporting the current rally - at least for awhile. The media has been filled with reports in the last week about how the rally was going to end any moment and investors had better get out. When it comes to deciding whether or not to listen to some know nothing windbag media pundit or the market, always chose the market. There is still a lot of danger in the financial system however with a lot more blow ups awaiting us. Enjoy the party while it lasts, but don't stay too long. The U.S. Employment Report tomorrow may trim the sails of this rally temporarily.

NEXT: U.S. Unemployment Rises to 15.6%

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup
http://investing.meetup.com/21

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

Bernanke Shoots Down the Dollar; New York Investing Predicts Out of Control Inflation

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

After the Federal Reserves surprise discount rate cut on August 17, 2007, oil and wheat hit all time highs. The U.S. dollar hit an all time low against the euro. Even though these markets were screaming rising inflation to anyone who would listen, two Fed governors gave speeches emphasizing that "inflation is under control". One talking-head economist after another made appearances in the financial media supporting the Fed's reality denying view. Spokesmen for Wall Street's special interests and politicians of both political parties started to loudly demand a flood of easy money from the Fed to 'save the economy' (and more importantly, their own personal skins). The Fed gladly complied and lowered both the funds rate and the discount rate by 50 basis points on September 18th.

It was clear to the New York Investing meetup that the Fed had chosen to try to save the economy in the short-term, no matter what the cost to the U.S. dollar and no matter how much inflation resulted from their actions. At the meeting held the very evening of the rate cut, it was stated flatly that, "The Fed lowering interest rates will cause the U.S. dollar to drop further and inflation to get out of hand" and "Lower Fed rates mean higher gold and oil prices" going forward (see: http://investing.meetup.com/files). This was followed up by an impassioned plea to get out of the U.S. stock market, get out of the U.S. dollar, and get into gold and silver.

While the New York Investing meetup had little confidence in the Fed's ability to rescue the economy or hold up the stock market, it was convinced that the Fed's liquidity binge would be the death knell for the reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar (Please see our video about this, "Saving the Economy be Destroying the Dollar" at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9K1lSA9AHE). The long-term implications for inflation hedges such as gold, silver, oil and food commodities were obvious. Even though the Fed and many mainstream economists were worried about potential deflation from collapsing housing prices and the stalled bond market, New York Investing staked out a clear position that the falling dollar was highly inflationary (also denied by many mainstream economists) and that this was the important investment theme for well into the future.

Next: The Markets React to Helicopternomics and so does the New York Investing meetup

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer, New York Investing meetup

For more information about the New York Investing meetup, please go to: http://investing.meetup.com/21

Bernanke Gets in His Heliocopter and Does His First Money Drop on Wall Street

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

On August 17th 2007, one hour before stock futures expired, the Fed announced a surprise cut in the discount rate beginning a new cycle of easing. While allegedly meant to help the financial system, which was reeling from the fallout from the subprime crisis, the immediate purpose of the Fed's action was to prop up a teetering U.S. stock market (it was not clear that even at this
point Bernanke and the FOMC realized how serious the subprime contagion was). There had been a mini-crash in Japan the night before and stock futures were pointing to a large drop in the U.S. markets.

The Fed's announcement of it's discount rate cut had the desired impact. Stocks futures on the Dow rallied multi-hundreds of points by the opening, wiping out the profits of the shorts and transferring that money to the sellers of the future's contracts (could this huge transfer of wealth have been a gift from Bernanke to the broker-dealers?). If the Fed had waited one hour for its announcement, there of course would have been no difference in the impact of the discount cut on the economy, but the impact on markets would have been considerably different. The message to market participants was quite clear, from now on the Fed will be trading against the shorts and its actions can wipe you out whenever we chose to do so. By February 2008, the New York Investing meetup would document approximately a dozen times when the Fed engaged in similar extralegal activity in the U.S. stock markets ( put on video , which can be found at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Sobq7wCXjUw). This of course leads to the obvious question, "When a powerful government agency like the Federal Reserve acts outside the law, who is going to stop it?" Based on recent history, apparently no one.

The U.S. Federal Reserve under Bernanke was not the first central bank to try to manipulate the stock market, nor was Bernanke the first Fed chair to engage in this behavior. Greenspan himself was not above using Fed policy to drive the markets up, but he would let the markets reach some clearing price first before stepping in. He would not try to use Fed policy to prevent the markets from selling off, the crude approach clearly being used by Bernanke, realizing how risky this this could be for the financial system. It was in fact, Greenspan's policy of doing away with Fed secrecy that opened the way for Federal Reserve manipulation of the U.S. stock market. Once the markets knew instantly what the Fed was doing, traders would adjust their actions just as quickly instead of over a longer period of time as people gradually figured out that the Fed had made a significant rate move as had been the case in the past.

Perhaps the most egregious example of stock market manipulation in the recent times was by the Japanese financial authorities in the late 1980s and early 1990s. While interference in the free operation of the stock market, was beneficial in the short-term, the consequences in the long-term proved disastrous. A buy and hold strategy in Japanese stocks would have earned an investor nothing from 1992 to 2007. A similar result in the U.S. stock markets from 2007 to 2222 would mean the huge population of Baby Boomers retiring in that time period and counting on stock market gains to fund their retirement would be in for a very rude awakening.

Perhaps, the ancient Greeks had it right after all, when those in power acted like the gods, a tragic ending was always inevitable.

Next: Bernanke Shoots the Dollar Down; New York Investing Predicts Out of Control Inflation

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer, New York Investing meetup

For more about the New York Investing meetup, please go to our web site: http://investing.meetup.com/21