Monday, September 21, 2009

IMF Selling Gold to Dampen Rally

The 'Helicopter Economics Investing Guide' is meant to help educate people on how to make profitable investing choices in the current economic environment. In addition to the term helicopter economics, we have also coined the term, helicopternomics, to describe the current monetary and fiscal policies of the U.S. government and to update the old-fashioned term wheelbarrow economics.

Our Video Related to this Blog:

Like clockwork, the IMF gold sale has reared its ugly head again as has occurred during a number of previous gold rallies since 2007. This time the IMF is actually selling the gold. It only threatened to do so the previous six times or so. It says it is looking for a central bank buyer. For some time, rumors have claimed that the central bank buyer will be China and these resurfaced again last week before the IMF announcement. China is playing coy however and says it wants the gold at a discount to the current $1000 price. Other possible buyers include Russia, the Gulf Oil States, Japan and India, all of whom have relatively low gold holdings and too many U.S. dollars.

The IMF is selling one-eight of its claimed gold holdings (the IMF is not audited, nor will it answer questions about whether its gold is held in individual contributing countries and being double counted as part of their gold reserves) or 403 metric tons. While this sounds like a lot, its is less than $13 billion at current prices. China alone has approximately 2000 billion dollars in reserves held in foreign currencies, almost half of which are in U.S. dollars. China's current gold holdings are 1054 metric tons, up from 400 metric tons in 2003. So it has less than $33 billion in gold versus almost 1000 billion in U.S. dollars. It is thought that the gold sale is being used as a way to let China get rid of some its U.S. dollars without dumping them on the open market.

There is also a two-day Fed meeting this week on Tuesday and Wednesday and a G20 meeting this Thursday. Since the Credit Crisis began two years ago, the U.S. dollar has rallied from just before the Fed meeting to just after (gold falls in response). This has happened no matter how much the Fed has announced it is debasing the currency. No one in their right mind would buy dollars under such circumstances, which leads to the obvious conclusion that global monetary authorities are acting in concert at these times to hold the dollar up. Expect this again this week. As mentioned in this blog on Friday, the dollar is too extended from its 50-day moving average and will try to rally back to that point.

Gold has traded as low as $996 this morning and the trade-weight dollar is at 76.97 at the moment (still below its 78.33 break down level). Expect general weakness in gold and the other precious metals and strength in the dollar until Thursday. A reversal for both after that is highly likely. Keep an eye out for buying opportunities, particularly in the mining stocks.

NEXT: Manipulation Fails, Gold Rallies Back

Daryl Montgomery
Organizer,New York Investing meetup

This posting is editorial opinion. Like all other postings for this blog, there is no intention to endorse the purchase or sale of any security.

No comments: